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To: The Ox who wrote (5660)	3/24/2020 11:53:01 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 8256

You probably don't know this, but I made my contagion/transmission model a couple of weeks ago and it has been damn accurate so far. I've been discussing it on Soux's thread since yesterday. Long story short - unless they manage to flatten the curve, expect a 10x increase every 8 days. So by Friday you are looking at 100k and by Easter Sunday 1M infections. Those numbers will shock and scare a lot of people. I expect some form of "medical martial law" and possibly armed conflict with people who will want to implement their own solutions. The potential is there for this to really go bad. On the other hand, maybe the government gets scared enough this weekend to finally get serious about flattening the curve. The curve ball is the number of unreported/untested infections. I've estimated a minimum of 3x the infections as is being reported. Which means even after they clamp down, the number will seem accelerating. You will have to use the mortality data to estimate the actual number of infections.

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