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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns:

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (5661)	3/24/2020 12:48:56 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 8255

Let' speculate a bit. Say over the weekend the government gets scared and clamps down (best case). Assume an average weekly drop in transmission rate of 10%, 10%, and 20% over the next 3 weeks (I am making this up - later tonight I will look at the Italian data and model it after them). Right now we are at ~7x increase per week. Then the reported rate will drop to 6.3, 5.6, 4.5 - after that, if they have really clamped down hard, we will have hit the inflection point and it will increase linearly for a week before tapering off. So starting with 200k on Monday, the next 4 weeks will look something like this: March 30th 200k, April 6 1.2M, April 13 6M April 20 27M April 27 45M After that the total number will increase but at an increasingly slower rate. This is just a hypothetical example. I will have to develop the numbers later tonight. I will use Italy and Spain as the basis to assess what is likely. But the above are in the ballpark of some of the academic projections.

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