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Politics : Sioux Nation

DJT 13.97

-0.2%

Jan 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (324007)	3/24/2020 5:31:24 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 362296

It seems scary to me too. So I hope that I am wrong. But so far I've been getting every number right. I put them on my calendar ahead of time so I know what to validate when. But as I said, my model is bound to breakdown at some point. On the other hand, you may have noticed that they have not published any projections or epidemiological models. I am guessing that is because in addition to all the ambiguity involved, they know how bad it is going to get. So check back on Monday, and if we are not close to 200k (assuming they still report it honestly) then I know that I have to change the model parameters. Most people have difficulty fathoming exponential growth. Suppose that you are filling in a 100,000 stadium at an exponential rate that doubles everyday. And say that it took you a month to fill it in 1/4 full (25k). How long would it take to fill it up? Most people, especially if they have been watching it day in and day out and feeling like paint drying, will not realize that in 2 days their stadium will fill out. It is the same with the infection, only the rate can be changed. But if we don't change it, then yes, we will have one million people infected within 2 weeks.

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