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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: Mohan Marette who wrote (15028)1/26/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Steve Porter  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Mohan,

Thank you.. (at least someone is starting to understand where I am coming from). You see I am just wondering what the total bill for all this will be.. I'm thinking something like this:

9.6B -acqusition price
?.?B -lost interest (who know how long it will take to get back 6b in cash)
2.?B - lost productivity due to integrationg concerns.
?.?B - lost agility due to tremendous and sudden size increase
?.?B - lost productivity due to employees worrying about their job (this is a real problem.. easpecially on the DEC side)
?.?B - cash needed for early retirmen/buyouts..
?.?B - charges for closing/mergin redundant operations..

As you can see there are a lot of ?'s there. The other thing to consider that's I didn't include on the list is ?.?B for companies that like DEC but DON'T like to deal with CPQ. Sure DEC has $13B in revs, but what if $3B of that doesn't want to deal with CPQ and moves to IBM.. all of a sudden it's a really bad deal.

When EP said accretive by the end of the year, I bet he was talking along the lines of about $4 to the bottom line.. So you have to figure he and the CPQ managements must be putting the bill around $11b-$12b this year alone for the acquisition, with probably another $4B next year.. that's a log of money for what could be significantly less that $13B in revs..

Steve

Cyrix/NSM RUle!
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