Activision....Returns! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Activision....Returns!

ATVI 94.42

0.0%

Oct 13 5:00 PM EST

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To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (851)	1/26/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: Tom Caruthers	Read Replies (2) of 1992

The quick answer...I don't know. The longer answer...So. People are exiting after the Christmas rush? This happened last year too. But remember...ATVI did almost as much biz in the 4th quarter as they did in the 3rd quarter in 1997 and actually came out with slightly higher earnings per share. This year has the benefit of new releases in the 1st quarter which will boost revs further. IMHO, people are being seriously shortsighted. I however don't think that selling from the small investor caused ATVI to tank. There were several large blocks of stock selling today. A concerted effort to drive down the price or someone getting out of the stock? I find it hard to believe that other gaming stocks (except for GTIS) barely budged today and ATVI is down 13%. In anticipation of downgrades? Possibly. But not even waiting for analyst up/downgrades? True, margins are down from 65% last year to around 35% this year, but that doesn't mean that the biz is going down the tubes. Come on! ATVI grew revs by 100% and net by 75%!!! At this price, I will be incredulous if analysts say that ATVI is not attractive at this price. Management WILL get margins back. They will realize that it isn't necessary to give away so much stuff for free if the game is solid. They will research more into hacker protection...(now here's a great biz to get into.) I often see a perfectly good stock tank on no news but usually on light volume. This is followed by a couple of weeks of relatively low volatility and then punctuated by a dramatic swing to the upside. I don't know if this is the case here...the volume is a bit too high. But! If people want to sell then fine, sell. I will start buying again if the stock drifts lower. Tom C.

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