Sure. That's right.
I think its too easy to forget that in markets "value" is always still a function, and only that, of what someone else is willing to pay to purchase what's being sold. Value investors focus very long term... buying things others roundly ignore... because fully knowing they'll "come around again". When the market ignores a thing its price trends to zero... generating massive leverage when market favor returns and reprices them. Might not be true of pet rocks ? Likely will prove very, very true of oil ?
The reason oil prices "should" be bouncing now... has nothing much to do with what anyone says ? It has to do with the oil price charts bottoming... because they reflect that element unsaid. When the tanks are all full, they will stop pumping oil. And when they stop pumping oil... future oil production capacity is FORCED into long term decline... which is true because of the physical reality that any oil well that stops pumping... never resumes pumping the same amount it did before.
Some in the market remain focused on who says what. Others focus instead on supply and demand paired with the physical realities of oil production. The noise in the market over "who should cut"... is a distraction to sustain market expectations that it is producers opinions that are what should control prices. But in this market, price is controlled by the demand side, not producers, as demand destruction toys with them like a dog with rag doll.
Trump timed his oil market comments... to coincide with a clear bottom in the oil price charts. Within the week... Russia and Saudi will both throttle back production... because they have to. They will also "come to agreement"... only because doing so saves face, and sustains the illusion their opinions and "price wars" control the market... even when it is physical reality driven by changes in demand reality that forces them to stop pumping. And as that occurs... oil becomes scarcer in the future... in real terms. Because oil wells are not light switches you can turn off and turn back on again to get the same output as before.
The thrashing apparent in the ego driven trash talk... is what everyone in the market apparently reacts to ?
That's in part because Russian and Saudi oil production isn't driven by market forces... but by central direction... which requires the element in theater to sustain focus on them ? In the U.S. there's a free market for oil... no one waits to be told what to do... so rig counts are already down 18% since January ?
Penny stocks... also require the element in theater to sustain investor focus... otherwise they trend to zero ?
What people are willing to pay, for the same thing, changes all the time... for lots of reasons... including the various antics of penny stock promoters, or the theater of the absurd in oil markets.
I'm told that's clearly true now of toilet paper... an excellent input by our host here recently, showing a roll of TP priced among the products in the case in a jewelry store...
The expectation of stability is the error made in normalcy bias...
Highly leveraged ETFs provide a good example relative to value in penny stocks.
You know, in a 3X ETF... that the structured value is designed to mimic the price of the underlying thing more or less accurately... only within the trading period of one day. If you hold ETF's longer term, the model fails to properly represent that underlying value accurately in the aggregate over time. Not a problem in ETF's only because they're not fixed... the companies alter the basis all the time... doing massive reverse or forward splits to adjust after big market moves... and no one complains like they will in the reverse of a penny stock... because the artifice of accurately mimicking one day's price movement is acknowledged.
But hold long term in any leveraged ETF... and your results will not follow the prices being tracked ? The false attachment to the underlying value is a chimera... the real value is constantly drained with a low percentage take to the fund operator... but, is one percent per day... really a low percentage take ?
Penny stocks... almost the same thing... as long as the illusion of reality in their project is sustained... the shares will cooperate by pretending the "value" should be priced as real... while those presenting the illusion find ways to ensure a constant low percentage take makes money for themselves... both with the PnD in share sales... and by trading shares short against their shareholders over the longer term...
The pink promoted "opportunities" trend toward zero over time... not the bank accounts of their promoters ?
Most pink scams are based on real assets... some real value. The scam is in the intent or ability to develop them... when what is being mined is investors... not gold, or graphite, or PGE's, or uranium, or whatever...
The potentially realized value isn't entirely fictionalized... but the attachments to it will be somehow ? As also, say... "paper" silver... or the market pricing of "future profits" at TSLA ?
The real economy exists... and real things exist within it... but the attachments of financial paper to those things is variably reliable ? So every investment analysis has to consider both aspects deliberately ?
Own Aramco shares... so you can volunteer to be dangled upside down in a hotel lobby somewhere ? |
