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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement
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To: Kip S who wrote (32591)4/5/2020 8:18:49 PM
From: geoffrey Wren  Read Replies (1) of 34328
 
This report (about half way down the long page) has Dow Jones dividends going down 75% from 1930 to 1934.

born2invest.com

Another source relates dividend drop off as over 70%

"For those who bought all of their stocks in 1929 the decrease in dividend income would have been over 70%."


dividendgrowthinvestor.com



There was deflation during the first 3-4 years of great depression which would have made the drop off in dividends less severe, more in the range of 60% in actual purchasing power.


Since stocks dropped 89%, you can say that dividends held up better than the stocks themselves.


I think the market might not be so bad, but some whole industries have been taken out and shot: retail stores, elder care residential REITs, BDCs, mREITS (their problem may be more liquidity and market calls, but those can kill a lender regardless), travel industry. Then there is more generalized recession or depression that will be in place with credit tightness affecting overly leveraged companies like many a REIT, greatly reduced taxes leading to government layoffs, reduced employment, etc., that will affect the whole economy and business profits will suffer.


Last recession home prices led us into the recession. This recession will be more typical. Home prices will drop as a response to the economy.


What worries me the most is the prediction that the economy will contract something like 25% in the second quarter. The Great Depression was 50% contraction. The Great Recession was only 5%. There is some tough sledding ahead.























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