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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 297.50-2.6%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: Elroy who wrote (84854)4/5/2020 9:55:42 PM
From: Elroy1 Recommendation

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The China Flash Market website continues to show modest price declines in DRAM and NAND products. Nothing big, but the price direction here is DOWN.

My hunch - OEMs are over ordering to avoid supply constraints due to all the shutdowns that are occurring across the planet, but they're now building inventory for future sales, which will likely come in below expectations which existed prior to the pandemic. So Q1 might be OK, and to a lesser degree Q2, but H2 2020 may have sales decline meaningfully as supply chains normalize, and then OEM's have to sell of the excess inventory built up in Q1. That's my guess about what is going on.

en.chinaflashmarket.com

Here's the 256GB TLC wafer price peaking a few weeks ago, and now heading down. There are similar price declines in various DRAM, mobile card and SSD prices.

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