2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 408.24

+2.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Dr. Voodoo who wrote (156030)	4/6/2020 12:47:04 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) of 218660

Tarrifs are just going to make oil cheaper on chinese goods and make the USA less competitive. Timing matters ? I think there is zero chance of any change in a long term strategy that divorces U.S. markets from market functions... particularly in oil. There won't be permanent tariffs on oil... and there's not any need for them in a functional market. Differences in the impact of the same tool... applied differently between "trade war" policy... and "war on virus" policy ? But there is obvious tactical advantage available in "preserving the industry" just as you work to preserve others now... keeping them intact... with heads up... and relatively little point in making the effort preserving others if you're that oddly selective to exclude oil ? Otherwise, allowing this wouldn't be helpful to anyone: IEA: Oil Price Collapse Could Leave 50 Million Jobless China will buy all the cheap oil they can... just like everyone else... and that doesn't really matter one way or another... in terms of producers making decisions now ? China will benefit more from lower prices than the producers will... just as China will suffer much more when prices rise than producers will... But one certainty driven by the current price collapse... is that future supply will be reduced... and future prices will be higher because of it... which is what the Saudi's are counting on by trying to drive under-hedged high cost producers out of the market. The impact on U.S. operators... will vary by company. Those I've looked at have prices hedged out to the end of 2021... so as long as prices recover in the next two years... they'll be OK. (Assuming the financial system remains intact to make good on their bets.) Hurt most by the current difficulties... are the smaller and more junior members of OPEC, whose costs of production are higher than some American shale producers.

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