China has been there for a long time... but they've been irrelevant outside of near-China for a large part of that time. It's obviously only been since 1970's Nixon/Kissinger that China was exempted from global standards and allowed to participate anyway... and most of China's economy today was created since then...
China's hugest "internal subsidy" since the 1970's has been slave wage workers...
Those two factors... are still what energizes China interaction with the world. However, neither one of those "advantages" is sustainable... even if China's trading partners wanted them sustained... and, of course, they do not. The west "made China" on purpose... in order to exploit China's low cost labor. Without that as incentive... and when you throw in the many other annoyances... China's more of risk than its worth, and is not worth it to the west anymore anyway, on purely economic grounds.
As far as tariffs... they get back to "the point"... which is the agenda in enabling, or not, some change that is deemed useful to enable. China has been granted "special treatment" for a long time... as it suited those outside China making the decisions, that it happen. Change is coming. And not just for China. The same has has been true of Europe since the end of WW II... and change is coming there, too... no more "special deals" for no reason... other than "it suits us" ? Well, it doesn't suit us any more ? So, on trade, I think you'll see a great deal more "reciprocity" happening... or a whole lot less trade.
Technology has very little to do with it...
Kinetic war would be wildly unpopular in today’s society.
I think that's a gross misreading. We've been at war... pretty much since 2001... and people are largely either unaware or inured of it. Blow up a few Iranians caught being where they shouldn't be... every one cheers... we go back to watching the game on TV again... except... wait... there is no game on TV ? There's a lot of pent up excess in "patience" right now... looking for an outlet.
The expectation that prices are going to rise... isn't overly consistent with the virus hit to the economy... driving a need to stay out of a deflationary spiral. If jobs are going to be lost over it... they're going to be lost in China... and the impact on prices... likely to be about neutral... if with a hit to the bosses annual bonuses.
Similarly, price inflation wasn't a massive problem in 1929 - 1934 ?
There will be a repatriation of manufacturing... which was already ongoing... all recent events have done is provide more of a reason to accelerate the trend... while obliterating any resistance.
Agree on the "globalists" being demoted from "masters of the universe".
The first round of "serious shit" in the Middle East... happened last week. Anything else... will have to wait until the virus is in check... and, then ? Combine the virus... with the lack of oil revenue ? It's not a recipe for launching a new war... rather than having a constant need to continue checking six... |
