Tin: Producers suspend operations amid COVID-19 lockdowns
roskill.com
Posted 6th April 2020 in ?Industry news.
By Adam Slade
Malaysian Smelting Corporation (MSC) and Peruvian tin miner Minsur, the world’s third and fourth largest refined tin producers respectively, have both announced they are temporarily suspending operations to comply with government lockdowns to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, Minsur’s Brazilian subsidiary Mineração Taboca and Namibia’s AfriTin have suspended operations, Indonesian tin miner PT Timahhas reduced production and delayed imports, and Bolivia’s EM Vinto has halted exports. These moves come as tin prices hit a four-year low, trading at an LME cash and three-month price of US$13,375/t in late March.
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MSC, Minsur, PT Timah and EM Vinto are among the world’s top six producers, producing nearly 40% of the world’s refined tin in 2019, and have been on partial or full hiatus for up to four weeks in some cases. Whilst PT Timah and EM Vinto have chosen to take steps to reduce output over demand and price uncertainties, MSC and Minsur have been forced to suspend operations due to government lockdowns. The Malaysian government lockdown or ‘Movement Control Order’, was implemented on 18 March 2020 and is due to run until 14 April 2020. MSC produced 24.3kt of refined tin in 2019 and a 28-day lockdown could cause the loss of an estimated 2kt of refined tin production.
The Peruvian government lockdown was implemented on 16 March 2020 and is due to last until 12 April 2020, only impacting Minsur’s Peruvian operations. Minsur produced 19.8kt of refined tin in 2019 from Peruvian operations. A 28-day lockdown period could cause the loss of an estimated 1.6kt of refined tin production. Subsidiary Mineração Taboca has suspended operations for an initial 15 days, having produced 6.5kt of refined tin in 2019. This suspension could cause the loss of an estimated 375t refined tin production. Lockdowns may be extended further, leading to additional losses in refined tin production.
Despite facing substantial headwinds, there are bright spots for the tin market, as Chinese metals and mining activity is showing signs of a rapid recovery after the virus disruption. As daily confirmed cases of the virus have dropped substantially, to manageable levels in China, economic activity is beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels. The Chinese economic disruption appears to be consistent with a sharp “V-shaped” trend, with a full recovery expected by May or June, assuming a second outbreak in the country can be avoided.
Roskill’s Tin: Outlook to 2029, 11th Edition report was published in October 2019. The second quarterly update will be released to subscribers in April 2020.
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