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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Madharry who wrote (63678)4/8/2020 9:36:55 PM
From: Spekulatius3 Recommendations

Recommended By
Jurgis Bekepuris
sjemmeri
The_Commodore

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telling people that a cure exists for a horrible disease so you probably wont die just have reduced lung capacity for life and suffer horribly for several weeks somehow doesnt cut it for me..Dont forget Mike Burry is very smart, on the spectrum, and probably incredibly fastidious. Most people are not like him.
From whatI have heard, getting COVID is no walk in the park if you are in the 10-15% cohort that gets the severe progression. You might wheeze for air for a week and feel very fatigued. Also, after you survived, you lung capacity is diminished by 20-30% in many cases and you don’t know if and show much oft will come back.So it’s not just about dying. A lot folks who survive this may have a severely reduced quality of life and life expectancy. it might take years or even decades to find out the true cost of this epidemic.

Nasty stuff.

As far as stocks are concerned. if someone would have told me 3. years ago that we have a major epidemic and the GNP will drop by 30% next quarter and major retailers just stopped paying rent, we need to prop up the economy with 2.5 Trillion to prevent worse, but the SP500 is at 2700 I would have laughed at him. Considering how long Mr Market has ignored this risk I would not put too much faith in his forecasting superpower. To me, this looks like a bad risk reward but I guess we will see.
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