I think there will be no shift to China... without a shift in China.
The shift "to" China has already occurred, has peaked, and is in rapid retreat... as limits in economic modernization run into other pre-existing limits, which have impact amplified by failures and reversals in parallel needs for modernization... required even to sustain what has been accomplished already.
Nothing more substantive exists behind that shift that has occurred, other than a temporary economic advantage in costs... primarily labor... that is now ending. Without an advantage in labor costs, the other costs of doing business in China, or with China, are becoming prohibitive. The advantage China has had... only existed because of the vacuum resulting as China took the 20th Century off... the way the entire world is taking time off now for the virus ? So, China had a long way to go to catch up... with hugely deflationary impacts on the rest of the world in consequence of enabling it... as others cost of labor priced them out of the market... with that occurring in parallel with other deflationary impacts.
That trend has peaked... and now will reverse as it must... leaving China much better off, but still with China having been driven by the trend... because enabling it... that still not the same thing as driving the trend.
The more revisionist Xi's policies become... the more the cult of personality ramps up... the more militaristic China becomes... the faster the rest of the world will run in the other direction, accelerating the reversal.
Right now the shift occurring is away from China... and away from authority / authoritarian...
Hong Kong was not seen, until recently, enthusiastically celebrating its forced growing closeness to China ?
Same reason... is why you see so few fans of the WHO and CDC posting glowing comments here...
If they were actually helping us... even intending to... instead of knowingly seeking to abuse our trust to harm us... we'd not be so angry with them ?
I see no one celebrating their forced incarceration... due to the virus... as a wonderful evidence of how lucky we are to have such wonderful governments looking out for us ? And, last on that list... would be China's.
It's the same story as the dollar...
Everyone bashes the dollar as valueless... while always failing to explain why it is clearly true that it remains significantly less valueless than all the more valueless alternatives we are told will replace it...save, again, it is for that very reason that gold and silver must be suppressed by advocates of fiat money schemes... to sustain the illusion of relative value versus and in spite of fiat debasement.
Substituting a desired outcome as the inevitable... with "and a miracle happens here" in the enabling steps ?
I'll agree with carranza2 there, perhaps... that the gold bugs clear certainty that the dollar will inevitably crumble into dust soon in the face of gold reasserting its value... only because they correctly see how corrupt the operations of the dollar based cartel are... is also not giving a rational reason that it should happen... That hope is also based on "and a miracle happens here" in the enabling steps... and fails as other dollar bashers desires do... in not ever explaining what it is that is to replace what DOES work about the dollar... that is so much better than the alternatives being offered.
And there isn't any answer to that question... that doesn't seek to impose LESS in result... and less in value.
That includes those who want "less" government... as a greater value than far too much... who would go too far in thinking less is always more ?
Alternatives that would supplant the dollar and the American legal system and its standards.... with the imposition of Chinese money and law ? The entire world economy would grind to a halt in less than two years time...
We may soon find out more... about relative advantages between systems... in the Adam Smith scale view of the question... since the world economy seems it is teetering on the cusp of grinding to a halt anyway ?
I am curious about your impressions of South Africa in that context...
The labor unrest... the takings of farms... dominate the news outside... leaving some probability of the mines not being able to be sustained if the politics continue to veer away from the sustainable... |
