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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 220.40+1.0%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (4581)1/26/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: John Chalker  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Ian, I think AG can have it any way he wants. It's easy for him. Never lose sight of the Fed's official objectives. 1.) Price stability, meaning low inflation and we're at 1.7% CPI with most in agreement that the measurement is about .9% too high, and 2.) Ensure consistent economic growth, which they define. If AG wants to ease, he has lots of room because REAL short term rates are high, very high. Actually, they are in a tightening mode. So he has slack to lower rates since inflation is so low.

As for overcapacity, yes, that is a true assumption and it has helped to create the low inflation environment. This in fact helps to allow AG the slack to lower rates without worrying too much about inflation.

If you think that situation is a tight one, try this scenario on for size: 6.00% inflation with $200 billion govt deficit and 9% unemployment in the US with the current recession (depression) brewing throughout Asia/Japan and Europe tied in knots with monetary union. Do you ease or tighten? (BTW, for a cheap trip to Indonesia, what year is represented by the US numbers given above?) I am havin' fun now!!!

Chalks
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