The better question is how does any rational person believe those numbers from China? They are a complete fabrication. They reported around 3,200 deaths - and yet people watching the Wuhan crematoriums note that over 40,000 urns of remains have been distributed.
I agree the Chinese numbers may not be accurate, but it does seem like the virus did NOT spread throughout China and cause a nationwide pandemic (the way that seems to be happening in most impacted countries throughout the rest of the world).
It's not easy to hide dead bodies. Beijing reports 8 deaths on the J Hopkins site. 8 deaths is nothing. It could be a bad traffic accident. Maybe it was really 25? That's still nothing in a city the size of Beijing.
I guess the main takeaway I get when comparing the US curve to China's reported (although perhaps false) curve, is the US isn't going to get the new case count down to where it was when China re-opened for a LONG TIME. I think. So.....if you've got 1,000 new cases per day, and you re-open, how in the world does the count NOT rocket back up until 75% of the population has contracted the disease and gained immunity or done the other thing?
China's new count numbers for the past 10 days are something like 32, 45, 67, 54, 45, 78, 91, 55, 65, 120....and it doesn't say, but I'll bet they're NOT concentrated in Wuhan, they're all over the country. For all we know in China in 4 weeks the may require another shutdown. Watching them and whether the virus returns or not will perhaps give us an idea of what the future curve can look like for the US.
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The US shutdown began about March 14th? On March 14th there were 740 new cases. So.....if 740 new cases merits a shut down, we shouldn't open again until there are LESS than 740 new cases in a single day, right?
That's at least 2 months away, methinks. Maybe more.
I don't know what to say. Maybe the approach will be that the US has flattened the curve once new infections gets down to 3,000 (still, a long time away) and then let the virus run its course through an open economy? |
