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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Elroy who wrote (63785)4/13/2020 12:43:56 AM
From: maverick611 Recommendation

Recommended By
bruwin

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I agree the Chinese numbers may not be accurate, but it does seem like the virus did NOT spread throughout China and cause a nationwide pandemic (the way that seems to be happening in most impacted countries throughout the rest of the world).

It's not easy to hide dead bodies. Beijing reports 8 deaths on the J Hopkins site. 8 deaths is nothing. It could be a bad traffic accident. Maybe it was really 25? That's still nothing in a city the size of Beijing.
May is not the word to use. The Chinese numbers are not accurate by HUGE measure - period. And the reason you don't believe it did not spread as much through China is two reasons:

1. China locked down the Wuhan province. They had armed guards / barricades not letting people out. they welded apartment building doors shut locking people in.
2. Cases that did occur outside Wuhan were mainly not reported - both for lack of testing and for CCP coverup purposes

If you really buy that there were only 8 - or even 25 - deaths in Beijing due to the virus, you are not being serious about this
I guess the main takeaway I get when comparing the US curve to China's reported (although perhaps false) curve, is the US isn't going to get the new case count down to where it was when China re-opened for a LONG TIME. I think. So.....if you've got 1,000 new cases per day, and you re-open, how in the world does the count NOT rocket back up until 75% of the population has contracted the disease and gained immunity or done the other thing?

The US shutdown began about March 14th? On March 14th there were 740 new cases. So.....if 740 new cases merits a shut down, we shouldn't open again until there are LESS than 740 new cases in a single day, right?That's at least 2 months away, methinks. Maybe more.
I think what you are missing is it doesn't have to be an all or nothing solution in the US. You can have different solutions and time frames for different portions of each state. Looking at gross numbers is not helpful at all. When the majority of cases are clustered in NY and NJ - and then there are perhaps 10 other larger cities with large numbers while the rest of the country is much much lower you craft a solution that takes that into account.

Things will open up within a month at most IMO. With precautions of course
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