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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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OldAIMGuy
Spekulatius
To: maverick61 who wrote (63791)4/13/2020 2:48:36 AM
From: Elroy2 Recommendations   of 78817
 
If you really buy that there were only 8 - or even 25 - deaths in Beijing due to the virus, you are not being serious about this

None of us know how many deaths there were in China due to the virus. But.....we do know that there are zero reports of hospitals outside of Wuhan overflowing with patients with Covid-19 symptoms.

You can't both have widespread unreported cases of the virus, and nothing out of the ordinary in the hospital system. As we've seen in locations which actually DO have widespread virus contamination, the hospitals overflow with patients and are unable to treat critical patients due to lack of resources.

There is no evidence of that happening anywhere outside of Wuhan, as far as I know. Didn't happen in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzen or anywhere, other than Wuhan.

And it has happened in Italy, New York, Spain and perhaps other places outside China.

Things will open up within a month at most IMO. With precautions of course

Lets see. Recently the Chinese new cases per day has been growing. If it continues to grow, why won't the rest of China have a "Wuhan-style" epidemic, and then another lock down? We'll know if that is going to happen before the end of this month. If the rest of China is going to get a second wave, then opening up the USA sooner rather than later will likely just lead to another USA epidemic in July......so what's the point?

The virus is mysterious in many ways. I live in the Philippines. We had 100,000 Chinese tourists here on vacation in Dec and Jan. The borders closed on about Feb 2nd. There were direct flights to and from Wuhan until Feb 2nd. And.......in Jan/Feb, no virus. Three cases total, each on a Chinese tourist.

Then in March, the Philippines count began to rocket up, due to Filipinos coming in from Italy and USA and South Korea. Now the case count is exploding, and more than 50% of the tests are producing a positive infected with Covid-19 result. They're testing the sick, so the positive ratio isn't shocking, but why in March and not in January?

Why do hundreds of Filipinos coming in from secondary hotspots in March produce a national pandemic, while hundred thousand Chinese, many from Wuhan in Dec/Jan produce nothing?

It's not easy to understand.
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