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Technology Stocks : Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)
DEC 15.14-1.7%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tom M who wrote (2808)1/27/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: George Dvorsky  Read Replies (3) of 3276
 
Tom/all,

All the questions about what is a fair price for DEC will be answered by the market very soon. If you hear a resounding silence, then CPQ paid a fair price. If you hear resounding bidding from DELL (if DEC is truly cheap, then DELL can afford it and if I were them, I'd try to drive up the price to weaken them) or others, then DEC was a steal. There is no way CPQ can get away with a cheap price.

The argument against foreseeing more bidders is that only CPQ can bring out the value in DEC. Only CPQ can tack on it's world class name and "I'll be around forever" attitude to Alpha NT workstations and make them fly out of the door.

The argument for a company like DELL getting into the bidding is that DELL could market the heck out of the Alphas, and the DEC/DELL engineering/marketing synergy would make more sense. DELL would be at a SEVERE disadvantage to CPQ if CPQ were allowed to take it over. DELL would never catch up. Besides, I'd rather have one share of DELL per share of DEC and no cash.... (vbg)......

How is this played? I will carefully ride DEC (as I am leveraged with short term options) will looking for a competitive or sweetened bid and eventually cash out and buy a chunk of CPQ or whoever buys it. Compaq should squeeze out the value in DEC and if CPQ keeps up it's recent growth there should be more than enough profits for any ex-DEC investor.

In addition, Stock Bull gave my opinion on what else to do with those profits. MSFT. CPQ/DEC will drive NT like a wild chariot. I originally got into DEC partly because of how I thought DEC could leverage NT. I should have bought MSFT then, and should still buy it now. But p/e's in the triple digits scare me (g).

One thing I will miss about DEC vs. CPQ is that it's much easier to type DEC than CPQ (too much shifting) and it's also easier to key in on a phone to get quotes ( for those too serious investors out there, that was an attempt at some comic relief. I did run the spell checker this time, though).

The Compaq that emerges from this takeover will be awesome. From clonemaker to IBM hunter in less than 2 decades. And it still looks like a growth company (and so does it's p/e).

gd

P.S. to Tom - The market without DEC will be like painted stick without it's paint, or can'o beans without his label. Maybe with all the free time I'll gain from not writing on the DEC board I'll re-read all of Tom Robbins' novels..... Better than 10 creative writing classes. And then there's that one love scene in "Even Cowgirls Get the Blues".....

gd
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