| | | Not such high expectations, only to have a decent modest opening of the tread without any hyperbole
Would appreciate remarks to my responses to a post of a friend on LinkedIn
linkedin.com
Hi Avner, I scanned over the article you mention and I would like to state that there are NO BLACK SWAN’s, in the contests of the unexpected developments.
What is true is, that there is a lot of ignorance to telltale signs, arrogance, and dismissive attitude, lack of alertness, forgetting or ignoring the past and overconfidence in the educated projections and attitudes toward the future, as presented in my lecture to MBA students at Peres College in January 2010 ( slideshare.net ).
In this lecture I also referred to the highly paid outside consultants, and the multi-millennia old concepts of the words of “Koheleth son of David” and Marcus Tullinus Cicero a Roman Senator in 63 BC. Since not much has changed.
The solution is to project the future but also to project alternatives plans if things fall apart unexpected to the uninformed management.
As a side comment I have 3 reference points to which I would pay attention and they are the solar minimum in Y2K, 2010 and now April 2020. I anticipated all 3 events, I was not surprised and warned whom I could only to be dismissed beforehand. The events at the solar minimum I predicted not on the fact of solar activity but on the telltale signs within the world economy, overly use of leverage, a huge amount of debt and other economic developments that crept into the system. More multidisciplinary research is needed,
As related to the BLACK SWAN as defined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, those are indeed rare events on which we as a human society have no control. One classic example is the unexpected "Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers, which generated unexpected economic instability crop failure and so on, on which aspect humanity had no control. Similar unexpected climate changes were during the Dalton minimum who was much shorter.
More at this link en.wikipedia.org and also what is happening today at linkedin.com |
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