On current status:
NYC obliterated the curve. Is not good to always set example. Others right now following.
Other pockets of high activity. Clearly some places slower to get handle than others.
Most of country back to Jan. 15 something, after 3 week staycation.
Testing is a huge problem right now on understanding-- it seems, not on spread.
Lockdowns will help catch up here--this is where the delay in re-opening the economies exist.
May 1 for some, for many much much later.
On restart-- my estimates.
Jerked around happened in China, Jerked around was 3-5 weeks.
Jerked around USA 5-7 because wastrel.
Re-opening.
1.) widespread pocket test kits, possibly/probably en route. Long term will happen, multiple formats etc. Will be able to tell if infected within minutes like pregnant only maybe nano size, without fancy boxes with baby on side. Antibody based gold nanoparticle (i like gold) but really this is small nanoparticle. even used for all 8B not enough gold to change demand. This will radically change how we think. If can be given before entering commercial venue, now puts business at liability of owner,,, as it always was. Transformational but dependent on treatment. If mortality continues to decline,,,
2.) If can socially distance by removing 50% of tables from business will avoid Ohio and Michigan like pockets of Zombie apocalypse. I am unconcerned about various reports of masks, distancing, lockdown, various forms of simon says. This will work.
nbcnews.com
3.) Distancing, and masks work. Based on reports--maybe still a bit early to tell, but as long as curve is not decimated e.g. NYC. then would expect re-opening, but depends much on how many new cases, each new case discovered means reset,,, stop start etc. Rapid testing solves this. This is economic win.
researchgate.net |
