2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 368.29

+0.6%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (156928)	4/22/2020 6:40:12 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) of 217576

In my direct view, in the short term... re oil and airlines... Oil, first: The fundamentals still argue that the June oil contract is hugely over-valued today... when the May contract sold for less than zero yesterday... and the same fundamental circumstances exist today as yesterday. The difference is only one of time... June being 29 days out from settlement... which gives some time for change to occur before reality is forced to be recognized again, the way it was in the May contract yesterday. I'm not confused about that... No combination of cuts in production or increased consumption is going to resolve the problems in the oil patch between now and the 20th of May when the June contract settles ? Between now and then... as oil continues to pile up faster than it is used... and as the storage space available to that growing pile of crude continues to shrink at a pace faster than "tanks all full" by the 20th of May... what will oil prices do ? The OPEC + "coordinated" cut of less than 10 million barrels wasn't even due to begin... doesn't even kick in until the first of May ? But, greater resolution on the economic impact of the virus... and on the pace at which tanks are filling up... now shows that the surplus in production vs. consumption is closer to 30 million barrels a day ? Even an "accelerating" pace in production cuts... driven by a "one day" issue with pricing debacles in the market... leaves you with "can't get there from here" as the reality to address on current trajectory. That's still ignoring that the Saud's WANT the problem to exist... and both they and the Russians will continue producing MORE, even doing so at a loss... in order to force OTHERS to cut production. So, I'm still bearish on oil over the next month... at least... ? Slower economic rebound post-virus... if you can tell me when that is going to occur... will also ensure that supply remains in surplus for some time. But the reality in fundamentals doesn't alter market participants behavior ? So, yesterday I went long crude oil for a trade... using UCO as the vehicle... Bought at $12 yesterday... and today I'm not holding that position any more ? Fundamentals are fundamentals. Charts is charts. Trading is trading. On the airlines ? Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya's case against stock buybacks, dividends

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