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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: locogringo who wrote (1230561)5/17/2020 1:31:13 PM
From: sylvester80  Read Replies (1) of 1575761
 
Which part of "A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin" did U not understand???

What's the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they're an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.

When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden's running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's final margin.

In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.
That's actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high quality national polling average taken during the same period. I should note that if we weight the average of state polls to each state's population, we get a margin just north of that 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)

EIther way, all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.
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