Sector,
1. I think the Street doesn't like the low growth projected
by mgmt for 1H98, even if visibility is fine.
2. I also think the Street doesn't like the 1.16 in earnings with
which mgmt. feels comfortable. That is just 9% greater than
1997. I'm guessing that there are other stocks with a greater
projected growth rate and decent visibility.
3. Bottom line: I think the problem, for now, is that everything
is being back-loaded into 2H98. As lots can go wrong between
now and then (and not just with respect to this one stock or
the market in general), I'm guessing that there is a tendency
to go with those stocks that are performing NOW.
4. The hoped for announcement of a new contract is the
kind of thing that would change perceptions on potential
earnings, but I'm starting to wonder whether this Waiting
for Godot routine is getting old, and causing a lot of dead
capital. As a small example, I shifted 1,000 shares from
ASND to SUNW yesterday, even though it was difficult to
realize my loss on the ASND side. Still, the results warranted
the effort. Imagine that happening on a much larger scale,
and that may indeed be the reason this stock is drifting.
After-hour trades, Tue., 1/27:
ASND - Transaction Log
4:40:40 S 400 28 T 4:05:54 S 30100 28 T cancel
4:39:31 S 700 28 T 4:03:55 S 1000 27.7 T
4:35:40 S 4800 28 T 4:03:46 S 500 27.7 T
4:25:34 S 1000 28 T 4:03:45 S 300 27.7 T
4:23:35 S 800 27:F T 4:03:40 S 100 27:F T
4:15:56 S 900 27:F T 4:03:13 S 500 27:F T
4:15:36 S 100 27:F T 4:03:07 S 10000 27"51 T
4:15:36 S 1400 27:F T 4:02:21 S 2000 27:F T
4:14:12 S T 28 4:02:19 S 200 27.7 T
4:14:12 S V 34653 4:02:15 S 500 27.7 T
4:11:29 S 200 27:F T 4:01:55 S 200 27:F T
4:11:28 S 200 27:F T 4:01:55 S 600 27:F T
4:07:49 S 100 27:F T cancel 4:01:53 S 1000 27:F T
4:07:30 S 100 27:F T 4:01:40 S 15000 28 Z
4:07:17 S 400 27.7 T 4:01:32 S 200 27:F T
4:07:16 S 1000 27.7 T 4:01:25 S 8200 28
4:07:16 S 1200 27.7 T 4:01:16 S 19600 27:F
4:06:37 S 800 27.7 T 4:00:44 S 100 27:F T
4:06:16 S 300 28 T 4:00:44 S 1000 27:F T
4:06:03 S T 28 4:00:18 S 300 28
4:06:03 S V 34611 4:00:16 S 900 28 T
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