Hi Rick -- the only news I saw today had to do with QuestLink winning an award, and ATML being one of its "sponsors," certainly not a reason for it to move any particular direction. In the absence of fundamental news (and if someone out there has heard anything real, please share), I suspect ATML is moving technically: testing its recent low of 15, or its third-market night low in the 13s, or looking to set a new recent low below even that.
I'm long on stock and a May call; I have Feb and Aug puts. With the way the stock is behaving, one needs to hedge one's money on Atmel. As I said last week or so (reply 7861), I think we're heading down a bit again over the near term to test or break through its recent low, and then once the low has been successfully resisted (and barring a total market collapse which would sink all ships), I see Atmel ready to begin a move up, explosively if the fundamentals improve drastically, more slowly if they just gradually improve.
"It's always darkest before the dawn," on the one hand. On the other hand, "And we are here as on a darkling plain...where ignorant armies clash by night." I can't predict over the short term which of these two is accurate for Atmel. But I believe over the longer term it's a good company: they keep coming out with newer, better products. And other folk on this thread have indicated that it appears Intel et al may be moving out of flash or at least reducing their flash exposure. In addition, with Atmel's lower price, it may be more tempting for a buyout. If Compaq and DEC can get together for nearly 10 billion, Atmel is beginning to look good for a capitalization currently of less than 2 billion. Or is this just whistling in the wind? Cheers/t |
