Where is mindmeld to explain why canceling the Open Skies Treaty isn't a gift to Putin?
Is the United States withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty a big deal?
Huge. This is something the Russians have wanted a long time. The treaty doesn’t go away because the U.S. is out, it merely means the U.S. will no longer have legal authority to overfly Russian territory or assets (under the treaty they must allow it with conditions). The rest of NATO will stay in, but the U.S., effectively, WAS NATO’s eyes since the U.S. has the air surveillance resources to feed vast intel back to the Allies. Without the U.S., the Allies are exposed because they objectively don’t have the same capabilities. Russia, on the other hand, is remaining in the agreement, and will still be able to fly over NATO to collect valuable intel on the alliance.
You might say to yourself, well, we don’t need old school spy plane flights anymore because we have satellites, but that’s bullshit because I can easily defeat a satellite because I know exactly where they are and when they will be above the horizon and, eventually, above me. Easy to calculate. So, I can just stage assets in a place where there won’t be a satellite flyover…or can conceal those assets and play all kinds of tricks for the imagery. The U.S. did this all the time to the Soviets when they sent satellites over Area 51. They’d cut out goofy shapes from cardboard and place them on the apron so that when heat sensors would try to get images of silhouettes of new aircraft being developed they’d just get a star or tree shape…the real aircraft was moved inside a hangar. So they got worthless intelligence. Aircraft flyovers are HARD to defend against because they are short notice and from a lower altitude. They complement satellite images.
There is no scenario where withdrawing is a good idea. Given Trump’s desire to rebrand things like he did with NAFTA (the USMCA is basically identical to NAFTA with a new name), he likely is doing this just because he can. He actually doesn’t understand or care why. He is intentionally putting the U.S., and by default, all of our allies in danger by doing this.
And before someone says, “oh, the agreement was flawed and the Russians were cheating anyway,” so what? You don’t NULLIFY an agreement that is MOSTLY BENEFICIAL because you don’t get everything you want. You propose fixes, you do not just fucking LEAVE. This is so nuts. What leader wants LESS intelligence about an adversary???
A leader that is owned by Putin And under orders to give up the treaty that benefits the US.. |
