SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 386.87-0.1%4:00 PM EST

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: carranza2 who wrote (158751)6/8/2020 12:15:22 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) of 218160
 
Martin noted

ask-socrates.com

Blog

The Pattern is the Same



Many have written in to ask that simply because of the strength of the rally that this means the low is in place and the recovery is now confirmed. Such opinion has been the doom of traders for centuries. People make judgments solely based upon the percent of the rally and that is no way to determine a market forecast. The Dow, in case you may not look at history, tested the 1,000 level three times and fell and only on the fourth time did it finally breakout.

The 1966 high was 1001.11 and the 1968 high was 994.65. If we just look at the 1966 rally which was the inflationary boom and the bust in mutual funds, the rally into 1968 had everyone convinced all was well. But 1968 was the first crack in Bretton Woods when they began the two-tier gold system and gold began to trade in London. From there, the market crashed into 1970 with the dollar rallying to record highs and gold fell below $35 for the first time. Then in 1971 was the Monetary Crisis Cycle and that is when Bretton Woods collapsed on August 15th. This demonstrates that the fundamentals were not just wrong, but that they caused everyone to be on the wrong side every single time to the extreme.

This is what we are facing with the coming Monetary Crisis Cycle once again. It hit in 1971 and here we are approaching a critical point and once more the foolish want to rush in and assume the rally is real simply because of the percentage move. This will be interesting and the Dow is what we need to watch for that can make a new low just as you see here in 1970.

Just follow the reversals and the arrays and be objective - dismiss all emotional judgment if you care to survive.

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext