Michael T. Osterholm wrote in Foreign Affairs:
If 1918-19 mortality data are extrapolated to the current U.S. population, 1.7 million people could die, half of them between the ages of 18 and 40... In 1918-19, most deaths were caused by a virus-induced response of the victim's immune system--a cytokine storm--which led to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In other words, in the process of fighting the disease, a person's immune system severely damaged the lungs, resulting in death...
Foreign trade and travel would be reduced or even ended in an attempt to stop the virus from entering new countries--even though such efforts would probably fail given the infectiousness... It is likely that transportation would also be significantly curtailed domestically, as smaller communities sought to keep the disease contained. The world relies on the speedy distribution of products such as food and replacement parts for equipment. Global, regional, and national economies would come to an abrupt halt--something that has never happened due to HIV, malaria, or TB despite their dramatic impact on the developing world...
In short order, the global economy would shut down. The commodities and services countries would need to "survive" the next 12 to 36 months would have to be identified. Currently, most businesses' continuity plans account for only a localized disruption--a single plant closure, for instance--and have not planned for extensive, long-term outages. The private and public sectors would have to develop emergency plans to sustain critical domestic supply chains and manufacturing and agricultural production and distribution. The labor force would be severely affected when it was most needed... There would be major shortages in all countries of a wide range of commodities, including food, soap, paper, light bulbs, gasoline, parts for repairing military equipment and municipal water pumps, and medicines, including vaccines unrelated to the pandemic. Many industries not critical to survival--electronics, automobile, and clothing, for example-would suffer or even close. Activities that require close human contact--school, seeing movies in theaters, or eating at restaurants-would be avoided, maybe even banned.
That was not written at any time during the COVID-19 pandemic. That was written in the July-August 2005 edition of Foreign Affairs during concern about a possible Avian influenza outbreak. He concluded his article as follows:
Each leader must realize that even if a country has enough vaccine to protect its citizens, the economic impact of a worldwide pandemic will inflict substantial pain on everyone. The resources required to prepare adequately will be extensive. But they must be considered in light of the cost of failing to invest: a global economy that remains in a shambles for several years.
This is a critical point in history. Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic. We must act now with decisiveness and purpose. Someday, after the next pandemic has come and gone, a commission much like the 9/11 Commission will be charged with determining how well government, business, and public health leaders prepared the world for the catastrophe when they had clear warning. What will be the verdict?
The verdict of any objective review of the Trump Administration's handling of the pandemic and its preparations in advance of it will be harsh. It inherited a detailed playbook from the Obama Administration that could have guided mobilization and communication. It ignored it. It had ample evidence about the gravity of a full-fledged pandemic, but denied the threat of the novel coronavirus, delayed mobilization, dismissed concerns about the virus, and clung to magical beliefs that the virus would simply disappear.
On direct account of its failures, the U.S. has now surpassed 2 million confirmed cases and 112,000 lives lost. Terrible as it is, things would have been far worse had the nation's Governors not finally provided the leadership the Trump Administration could not. Newly-published research indicates that the U.S. would have had 4.8 million additional confirmed cases and 60 million infections without the Governors' interventions.
Never before has the United States experienced the kind of leadership failure as experienced during the populist Trump Administration. Now, the U.S. is in the midst of triple crises: an ongoing pandemic, a severe recession, and demonstrations aimed at ending institutional systemic racism in U.S. law enforcement.
Don Sutherland |
