ccryder, of course calls look good right now. In fact, all options should be looking good at the moment, since volatility in LOR is on the upswing. In other words, the higher the volatility, the higher the time value inherent in options. Wish I had listened to my gut on that and bought more calls.
The LOR/ONSI situation looks to be unfolding as expected.ÿ LOR short positions are coming down (as reported on Geoff's FAQ), ONSI is trading closer to the $17.50 merger value (as time to closing diminishes, and the likelihood of LOR>$24 at closing increases), in short, things look to be on track.ÿ Possibility, however, that the market may not be fully pricing in the increase in volatility that will result from the upcoming Feb. launch of satellites for G*.ÿ The stock should either pop big time on a success or tank big time on a failure.ÿ The options have been getting a little pricier, but w/o the benefit of Black Sholes, I can't tell whether the implied volatility is up or not, if not, I would want to buy volatility.ÿ This is a one off event, but combined with the ONSI deal closing (sched for 1st Q) and all this rumor-mongering about lay-offs, there should be some price movement (possibly as all the arbs in ONSI unwind their deal related shorts ahead of the launch).ÿ
Cheers,
Thomas |
