Anyone doubting your scenario might check Zeev further on
Barton's site:
inet.co.th
Focus on Asian debt liquidation. Then, think about scenarios in 3 month times frames: then, in scenarios in 6 month time frames. How do you reliquify the banking systems after a melt down like Indonesia?
Further to yours ZEEV on the scenario of Japan being at the center of "the crisis".
...Alexander Kinmont's 3rd Annual Predition(s) about Japan. Kinmount is the very saavy, sharp Morgan Stanley analyst in Tokyo. (from Barron's Jan.26, 1998, PP. mw 10-11) This is hkis third annual "predicition" list; and, last year he rated his predicitons with a 60% success rate.
- the 225 stock Nikkei index @ 10,000 "for a short period early in the year"
- the yen drops to Y150/$ by year end. This decline initialy " is accompanied by the lamentation of Japanese officials, and at first provokes no open intervention by the US FED." Then, as the US autjhorities despair of any political leadership emerging in Japan, they "turn more belligerent by year-end."
- Kinmont believes that the high PE favorites will suffer "shattering" multiple contractions later in 1998 "even though nothing much goes wrong their earnings."
- finally, foreign investors file lawsuits against Japanese managements. The Japanse press indignant. Washington tells Tokyo that a country with a curreunt account surplus equal to 3% of GNP is in no position to block foreign takeovers.
And so it goes.
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