Spots: I would like to hear about your progression as a CKFR user. I think it will be similiar to most consumers usage pattern.
As far as CKFR's earnings go, I invested knowing that CKFR would not show earnings until the quarter that ends June '98. This is because they continue to invest heavily in the infrastructure needed to become the leading provider of home banking and bill pay services in the country. I felt that if they could pull off the build-up part, and get banks to sign up that they would eventually make alot of money. I say alot of money because as I look at home banking, it certainly has to grow in usage. There are many banks that do not offer it yet, and those that do offer it are in the early stages of rollout, so there is a great deal of incremental revenue out there. The same reasoning could be applied to bill payment processing, more banks to begin offering bill pay services, while the banks CKFR has under contract will continue to sign consumers up for the service, so there are two ways for CKFR to get more revenue. CKFR is on the verge of the point in time where the revenue generated by the consumers the banks have signed up are greater than the expense for running the infrastructure to support the banks. You can verify all of this by looking at the analysts earnings estimates for the past few quarters. The analysts expected CKFR to report a loss of .04 for this past qtr. CKFR reported a loss of .02. That is a positive because it means they are that much closer to break even, then positive earnings, then rapid earnings growth.
Think about how many people you know, and then how many of them are doing home banking and bill payment. The majority are not doing either. That is where the growth will come from, and that growth will mean rapid earnings growth for CKFR, and, presumably, a (much) higher stock price. |
