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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 208.70+3.6%2:53 PM EST
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To: Richard Russell who wrote (27243)1/28/1998 11:12:00 AM
From: Megs  Read Replies (2) of 53903
 
Richard,
Micron is already producing a 16Mbit DRAM with a .25u process.
They use the same process to produce their 64Mbit SDRAM. So as
far as process development costs go it should be minimal.

The same equipment is used to produce both the 16Mbit and 64Mbit.
I would also assume that the equipment can be used for the next generation process (.18,.15, etc). The equipment manufacturers
are pretty good at making machines that can handle a range of
processes. So fab costs should be only for expansion (if they have
the room, oh yeah Lehi).

I see no significant costs in assembly (except for new molds, which
are not a big budget item.)

Test costs could be major since the SDRAM has to be tested at 125MHz
(PC100 spec). So unless the current testers can achieve this then
your looking at $1 million for each new tester (Teradyne and Advent
will like this). This is also where the Koreans will get hurt since
they cannot afford to buy many new testers.

Then there is yield costs. A new chip will be lucky to get a 10%
yield. I'll assume Micron 64Mbit has already surpased this. I would
think you would need to get at least 60% yield to make money on large
die. I don't think that will be a problem since you can repair DRAM
before it gets shipped. The main issue would be how long will it take
to get an acceptable yield? I've heard that Micron puts A LOT of
effort into yield. So maybe 3 months? What is their yield now?
Try getting that info...

So my "opinion" would be 3 months till full ramp and $100-$200 million
in cost. You know they have shrinks on the way so the die per wafer
will go up dropping costs. Also if this current 64Mbit SDRAM is their
1st generation then they will likely ramp the 2nd generation (use the
1st to work the bugs out) unless the market is already there, which
it isn't.

What is funny to me, is that I heard the same arguments against Micron
when the 16Mbit market was about to take off as I'm hearing now with
their ability to make the 64Mbit. This will be the same with the
256Mbit too I'm sure.

Meg
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