Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan?

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To: Yiota who wrote (2151)	1/28/1998 11:30:00 AM
From: Winter	Read Replies (2) of 4903

First all, let me state that I am short since yesterday (before the announcement) >Most of the current loss annoucement is already reflected in the stock price not much room on the down-side, especially now that the cat is out of the bag! I disagree. There is plenty of room left on the downside. This mentality is a result of the stock has been so much higher in the past - believe me I know, I've been on the other side. Its hard to believe that it could still be overpriced at these levels and yet that is what I think. >Jim Barksdale did a great move by giving away its browser for free. This will generate great revenu for Netscape based on traffic. They are giving up client revenue in the short-tun. Whether or not this will increase Netscape's traffic/market share is questionable as IE is also free. Most people already have a browser they use and will not switch because of the change. For new users, the threat of IE being preinstalled still looms. Downloading Netscape, even if free, still takes time, many people will simply use the IE icon already on their desktop. >YES, I also believe they be profitable by the end of 1998. Even if they are profitable the question is how much. Even the current stock price cannot support a small profitable company. We need revenues expanding - I'm still not convinced they have a business model that will work (ie: grow revenues). There is nothing they have that is unique or extraordinary (that another software company can't duplicate) >The current market share price is extremly overdone on the downside. maybe a point or two but thats all. "way oversold" on old news, most of the loss is in the price! See point 1. The stock price still has plenty of expectations built into it that may or may not materialize. The browser is a commodity. Server sales are competitive. >Everyone I know likes using Netscapes browser much better than Microsofts. No argument there, I have the latest of both installed and use Netscape for nearly everything. However, history has taught that people don't always pick the best. Just my thoughts...

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