Marc,
You're absolutely right about about consolidation in this sector. The flurry of announcements the last several days gives you an idea of how many players there are in this business (and ADTRANs big ADSL announcement wasn't even posted).
My guess is, it will shake out to three or four big players......per usual, big fish will swallow little fish. Who will the winners be (besides AWARE, since they own the DMT licensing rights)?.....I don't know, but have some opinions.
IMHO, ALCATEL will be one the large-cap players. Maybe LUCENT, but after that, its anyone guess. PAIR now has great technology, but if it is too proud to allow itself to be taken over, it might be relagated to a small-niche player in the pair-gain business.
There are so many players in this game: Telcos, networking co's., ADSL designers, chipmakers, ADSL mfgrs, system integrators, ....it is mind-boggling. Perhaps someone out there has some good ideas, but I can' even figure out what PAIR's plans are, so I'll ofer no more! Good luck!
Regards,
Knip |
