>There definitely is a public debate re lockdown, reopening, social distancing, masking, etc etc
CNN is on one side, and presumably Fox on the other.>
Actually I agree with the Ant on this. Once a critical mass is reached in infection, the virus races through a local population and then pretty much exhausts itself in 3 weeks. Masks or no masks. Social distancing or less social distancing. Of course total lockdown can slow the inevitable only so much, as total lockdowns are not parctical for long.
And then it slowly builds a critical mass elsewhere. The Ant is not recognizing this part and calling an end too quickly. The elsewhere can be another state which does not have major airports. It could be a rural area in the same state. Or it could be a rich town where the owners can afford to stay in lockdown for a longer time.
The problem is that critical mass in infection is not easily recognized at its turning point by testing alone. While the virus is spreading, there is no serious alarm till the death rate becomes obvious, which is around 100 deaths per million. Then the steep curve happens till about 500 deaths per million are seen in about 3 weeks. Texas is just getting close to 100 deaths per million. So if this follows Michigan trajectory, Texas should hit 400-500 deaths per million deaths in the next 3 weeks. But it may not be so bad as hospitals have become better at saving patients.
After Texas there is no other big population state remaining wih low infection rate. So the Ant maybe right that we are not too far from the peak. But daily deaths do not decrease to almost zero for over 2 months. NJ and Mass. are still seeing 30-40 deaths on days. If past peak, states keep seeing small numbers say 20 deaths a day, with 50 states, and other territories 400-700 per day deaths could linger for another 2 months.
Of course all this is just the first wave, and second wave hits when in 8 week immunity weakens, as has been observed in some studies.
-Arun |
