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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 395.80

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Dec 15 4:00 PM EST

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Joseph Silent

Pogeu Mahone

To: TobagoJack who wrote (159782)	7/4/2020 7:59:33 AM
From: arun gera	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 218511

<Presumably at some juncture the Ant and you shall know who is closer to being correct, as there logically can only be one of you, unless some overlooked vector(s) turns out to matter.> It is a question of equilibrium vs kinetics. Let me explain for those who are not chemists or engineers. When you are boiling water in your kitchen, it will reach equilibium at the boil at 100 degree C (with variations depending on the altitude above sealevel). Think of 100 degee C as the herd immunity equivalent. If your gas burner is at low, it takes longer to boil the water. That is kinetics - heat is spreading from the burning flame to the pot and then within the pot of water, It still boils at 100 degree C though. Similarly, you can reach herd immunity slower or faster. But where herd immunity (boiling point) is we do not exactly know. One way to guess where herd immunity is to see the worst case infection has been so far- which was NY city (about 2500 deaths per million). Thats where I have put the upper bound. With better medical treatment or weakening of the virus(hopefully) things may not get as bad. The US as a whole is only at 400 deaths per million so far. The water is boiling at a lower burner setting in rest of US, while it came to boil in I-95 corridor between Boston and DC faster. Just like as the water is getting hotter the longer it is on the burner you cannot visibly see the increasing temperature. When it reaches the boil, violent bubbling tells you that it is there. That marker seems to be around 100 deaths per million when bubbles start rising as they were doing in Florida last week. -Arun

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