The GOP of the Future
I had a lovely email exchange with a reader the other day who was making the case that while yes, Donald Trump is evil, unified Democratic control of the government would be at least as bad. And that in the post-Trump future, while the Democrats spin off into woke socialist land, the Republicans will once again become responsible, classical conservatives who can be trusted with power because the party will be retaken by grownups such as Mike Pence and Nikki Haley.
He may well be right.
But it seems to me that this scenario is a low-probability event.
Let’s stipulate that the most likely outcome for the medium-term future of American politics is awful. We’ll probably get some version of Don Jr. squaring off against AOC in 2024. That’s because the science is settled: We live in the worst possible timeline.
But to think that the Republican party will walk away from where it is now, you have to believe a few things that seem unlikely.
For starters, you’d have to believe that Donald Trump is going to disappear and decline to exercise any dynastic ambitions. This would run counter to information already in evidence about the Trump family.
Next, you’d have to believe that there were places in the party for non-Trumpy, non-conspiracy crazy, non-nationalists to get footholds. Well, here is a fun fact from Dave Wasserman: When Trump took office there were 241 R’s in the House; 115 of them have resigned, been defeated, or retired/are retiring.
What’s left of the elected party will be the Trumpiest parts.
The biggest factor, though, is what Republican voters actually want. And the evidence keeps piling up that the Republican party today is reasonably representative of voter preferences. Nearly half the GOP is against wearing masks in public. Less than half of Republican voters say they would get a COVID-19 vaccine. Then there’s the Q-Anon believers who keep winning primaries. So far, they’ve gotten 600,000 votes.
On the one hand, 600,000 is a small fraction of the 330 million people in America. But on the other hand, these folks are just getting started and have only gained entrance to a handful of primaries so far.
Here is a useful comparison. If you a Republican, ask yourself how pernicious you believe the Squad’s influence is within the Democratic party.
Now understand that come January, Q-Anon believing House members will likely outnumber the Squad.So that’s the Republican side of the ledger. Come 2021, is this Nikki Haley’s party? Or Father Coughlin’s?
No one can predict the future with total certainty, of course. But I know where I’d put my money.
the bulwark |
