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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 270.83

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (85299)	7/9/2020 8:53:52 PM
From: The Ox	3 Recommendations Recommended By bull_dozer Return to Sender Sam Read Replies (1) of 95456

Taking the most aggressive EPS expected in 2021 and 2022, $9.31/$11.98 - fair value in 2022 is closer to $300. A 25 PE (based on growth between 21/22) and using the $12 EPS. At over $400, NVDA is seriously ahead of it's numbers by 33%. Taking INTC, using the same reference, it's only 20% over valued based on an 8 PE and $5.60 EPS in 2022. I added in a $1.50 for the dividend fwiw. Clearly the market is not interested in underlying fundamentals at the moment. With interest rates expected to stay low for several years, money has been moving into higher risk investments and it's likely to continue to do so for the short run. Note that I used the very highest estimates for each of these companies. There are serious downside risks going forward and pie in the sky future estimates are not my idea of "good risk" taking. Semi-land continues to look very bright for these companies but it may truly take several years to catch up to their current valuations. Let's hope I'm wrong!!

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