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Technology Stocks : ADFLEX SOLUTIONS ( AFLX )

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To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (254)1/28/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: rich evans  Read Replies (1) of 718
 
Did you listen by any chance. I listened and asked about rev growth and projections and the answers were what was posted on Yahoo. Q1 will be flat with operation margins improved and gross margins about the same. 52 mill is a good estimate. But Q2 will show accelerating revs and income despite the HDD problem which has 6 mo to go probably. The company right now is 65% is flex fabrication and 35% in assembly. It wants to increase assembly and take business away from SFLX which is all assembly and ahead on the new technology of Direct Chip attachment.The year end results should be in the neighborhood of 250 mill revs and 1.50/share. Backlog is not always the best indicator as their is more turn business where it is booked shipped and billed and never hits the backlog number. It looks like they ship about 86% of backlog in the past , the same as SFLX. With SFLX this means Q1 could be about 45mill revs IMO and margins should be 4+%. This CC was interesting because of the time spent talking about the industry/ products/ customers etc. Three reasons were given for revenue estimate differences. One was the HDD problems although AFLX does desktop DDs and not just high end which SFLX does. Another reason was Transition problems from new customers, and old products to new ones which cause timing problems and ramp problems not much with AFLX but with the OEM, and third is the ASIA perception which creates hesitation etc.AFLX thinks the flex industry will do well because of the trend and need for minaturization which often requires flex and second mechanical needs for flex in many products these days. They do not have a stock buy back planned but stock is considered cheap at a future psr of .6 and PE of 11. Conclusion: Buy. But will have to wait at least 1 quarter maybe 2 but then should takeoff.

Rich
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