Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (85374)	8/4/2020 6:12:29 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 95487

Looking at LRCX earnings, it seems the market is ignoring an obvious situation. If we take the last quarter of 2017 and first 3 quarters of 2018, we get one year's EPS at $17.90. If we add up the last 4 reported quarters we get EPS of $15.95. So they've not been growing EPS for several years. How do we put a trailing PE of 23 on a company who's not even making more than that a couple of years ago? We do this by using forward projections based on FY21 and comparing to the current. So "expectations" of $21/sh EPS is the projection for this FY. Well, it's taken them nearly 2.5 years to get to the point where they are finally exceeding EPS from 2018. And that's by $3/sh which would not translate into 25% per year, that's for sure. I know that projections for 2022 are for $3/sh more than 2021 but that's only a 14% growth rate. 14 x $21 = $294 and 14 x $24 = $336 With LRCX trading in the 380s, I'd say it's WAY, way ahead of it's underlying fundies. I welcome other views!!

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