". . . a convincing argument for why people will not go right back to travel by plane post-pandemic once the cloud of the virus is lifted . . ."
The main argument is that a large segment of middle income households are running out of money for anything but essentials and possibly low cost vacations to nearby places – NOT flying. Consider that the unemployment rate is now above 11 percent, total unemployed are now over 30 million, and many small businesses have gone out of business and probably won't return.
As for the pandemic itself, it is actually gaining steam in the U.S., brought on by the very type of vacations and leisure activities you report seeing. This doesn't sound like a prescription for more flying, more airline profits, or more of anything other than grief. Covid-19 cases are rising in many parts of the U.S., and that in itself will be enough to discourage any risks, including flying.
On the positive side, airport traffic is now down so much that at least the airports themselves are unlikely to be dangerous for the spread of the virus. The aircraft themselves, despite efforts to clean the cabins, may still be too risky, especially if all or most seats are occupied. I've delayed several proposed air trips for that reason, and I doubt that I'm alone.
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