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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (13602)1/28/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Ross McEathron  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Bill,

Haven't talked to you for quite a while, but you got my interest up SO much in the VIX that I have become a daily student of the action and correlations between this index and the S&P 500. I see you have already responded to the question which I was just about to ask so this may be somewhat repetitive, but I also believe that we came really close to a reversal today and barring something really strange happening tommorrow (i.e. some large news item or some huge multinational doubling estimates <gg>), I also think we will complete this up cycle sometime during the day tommorrow and start down...nothing major or ominous, just some minor profit taking most likely.

BWDIK <gg>

Kinda getting the hang of this thing. Very accurate for short term moves...as in days or weeks...for me so far. Do you believe that the VIX is capable of calling the long term bull and bear legs as well? I went back and looked at April '97 and the only thing I saw that was unusual was the really large reversal day on April 8th...if my data provider is correct anyway. This would have been perhaps a bit too early but a sign that things were starting to change directions anyway.

In Oct, it was more obvious that a decline was eminent and a formula I've been toying with gave sell signals on OCT. 23rd, 24th and 27th. My other system, which you are aware of, gave a sell signal on Oct 12th which was a bit too early but definetely got you out of harms way. Now if I could just short those darn IRA's...who says that's speculative? <GG>

comments??

Thanks,

Ross
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