Re: Some musings about the forecasts
Since your opinion sample is much larger than Zack's or First Call's,
your numbers are more reliable <g>.
Two observations of somewhat related nature:
1) Quite a few contestants are predicting approximately same number of orders in CYMI portfolio, but differ in opinions about the production in 4Q. For example, Tulvio has 150 lasers for 4Q ($66M at 440K/laser) + $100M backlog for $166M, I have 130 lasers for 4Q ($57M) + $115M backlog for $172M. Overall, I am forecasting few more laser orders, but my production rates for 4Q are much lower.
I am not sure what will appeal to analysts more - great numbers for 4Q and diminished backlog, or subdued 4Q and slightly higher backlog allowing for flat production rates in the next 6 months (as in my scenario). My point is that there exists a tradeoff between the production in 4Q and the backlog, and CYMI's management could trade off large 4Q for a better looking backlog.
One month into a quarter, review of their 6mo. order portfolio allowed the management to predict increased revenues (read increased production rates) for the next 6 months. Since then, Korean currency troubles could cause order pushouts. Typically, in this situation company's management attempts to smooth out future production flow by juggling the delivery schedules and by slowing the production ramp-up.
At least one analyst (Jay Deanha) predicted flattish outlook for the next few quarters and my guess is that analysts expect the company to actively manage its backlog.
2) Interestingly, contestants that are quite pessimistic about the stock are expecting more orders in CYMI potfolio than some optimists. Some examples:
Elizabeth predicts $14.63, 128 lasers 4Q ($56+M at 440k/laser) + $114M backlog - total orders of 170M. Zeev's numbers are $14.25, 135 lasers ($59+M) 4Q + 110M backlog - again total orders of 170M.
On the other side is Mr. Aloha, he has 130 lasers 4Q ($57+M) + $106M - total orders of 163M, but thinks the stock could go to $18.
Personally, I like Mr. Aloha's guesses much better.
Yakov.
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