The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

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From: elmatador	8/17/2020 5:36:02 AM
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TheJackofHearts The concept of a country's Natural size if from historian Paul Kennedy. (see below) If one applies the concept to Germany or Japan it becomes clear that those countries amassed a large % of the world's GDP but it wasn't sustainable. I applied to China telling to TJ that a tree does not grow to the sky. China must find its natural size, and if went above it, it would return to it. No matter what. China, during a brief period of time, which I call the Chinese Decade (1998 to 2008) amassed the world factory output by mobilizing a reserve army of rural peasants and turning into construction workers the demobilized PLA post fall of communism. Several factors conspire against China size: The reserve army is fast getting old.And so are the soldiers that were demobilized. China will have, by 2050, an US-size population of 300 million people above 65 year. There will be no money for military adventures as this money will be used to care for the elderly population. More educated urban people are not willing to toil in factories for low wages. And the US is no longer willing to let westerners transfer technology free of charge to gain market access.

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