Overarching macro in my book is that the world is in a depression camouflaged by flooding of fiat money inflation, and at some juncture the capital markets, following the traded goods and services markets, might give an expression that causes anguish, compelling the authorities to double-down, for there be no viable alternative, as nothing else matters
usdebtclock.org (interesting to note again that Team China has US$ 250 ‘T’ trillion of collateral-good ‘money’ to release by way of one-off rural land reform whereas the other entities must first seize land before can do same, and so shall do anyway - thus buy gold against all fiat money).
Must expect inflation of bacon, copper, iron, gold, palladium, platinum, rare earths, sand, silver, etc etc, but not Tesla. Am undecided about oil and natural gas, as those depends on what happens where how on production sides and I find more complicated than gold in every sense.
My first post circa 2011 re “China rural land reform” Message 27675006
Circa 2013 Message 29283719
Circa 2014 Message 29443221
Circa 2015 Message 30231862
Circa 2016 Message 30904256
Circa 2017 Message 30998854
Again but illuminating, 2017 Message 31024073
Circa 2018 Message 31633216
Circa 2019 Message 31947590
Circa 2019 Message 32385658 (Apple & Huawei)
Circa 2019 Message 32438427 (Ants Financial / digital RMB, etc. Ants is all about rural wealth creation, a subsidiary of Alibaba, soon to be listed on 0388.HK)
Circa 2020 Message 32732163
... and as we zip to 2026 and wade across towards 2032
The concern is that Team China, still returning to natural size, is the only large economy still in normal monetary space, with bank deposits sporting 3% yield.
I refrain from shorting AAPL because I like and buy the products, and w/ CoVid doing whatever appears to be doing, needs for home IT upgrades ought to be quite strong even as consumers presumably cautious about events no longer under control. Parents must stretch to do what they must do for the kids until they can stretch no more.
As to continuing read of the same script, am guessing ...
- Fewer folks need to go places by expensive go carts to risk CoVid when gasoline is cheap
- Lots of EV competition coming up per already clear and present developments
- Trade / Tech / Capital wars may hit AAPL, and can also smack TSLA
- Capital war cannot do much to AAPL but can hurt TSLA
- CoVid might not be a big deal to humans, does affect human interactions and therefore commercial transactions, and so does and shall matter to financial markets
- Evolving capital war might have, no surprise, effects on capital markets
- Lead-ups to elections matter, and 2020 USA is the show to watch, and November is the month that encapsulates before and after
Given above, I did below yesterday, initiated or otherwise added to some longer-term positions knowing full-well they might tank
9988 is Alibaba finance.yahoo.com , the same BABA finance.yahoo.com in Team USA political gun sight, that which is providing connectivity to the world irrespective of what Team USA does, and which should tend to compel Team USA further weaponising the dollar, and it would not matter given Ants Financial / digital RMB initiatives in pipeline
0700 is Tencent finance.yahoo.com , owner of WeChat, and I expect to feast at one of co-founders’ home 30th August, the day after my home-quarantine ends
0388 is HKEX finance.yahoo.com about which I have noted since forever ago, that which depends on stock trading volume, and volume should continue to rise as Team USA China-sell drive more listings and customers to Team HK
Also shorted puts on above shares at close to the money, to either reduce cost or to get more of the underlying - do not much care which
6185 finance.yahoo.com is CanSino, and its CoVid vaccine might sell a few billion doses, and keep selling every year
Did nothing about 0288 WH Group finance.yahoo.com Team China owner of Smithfield (pork and bacon and such) because I do not know whether / how bacon might be weaponised / politicized - communist bacon made in America sounds about the same at a distance as CCP TikTok-ing Team USA
The entirety of above buys and prospective put-exercises are financed by cloud-ATM operations this night (NY afternoon just now)
Bought protective BABA (Alibaba) puts bridging the USA election before / after, anticipating Team USA institutions to China-sell-China-sell-China-sell, and talks of China-sell to be highly visible in weaponised / politicized MSM
Bought GDX puts, to hedge against rubbishing-talk against gold, the true, eternal, and faithful
Sold plenty of short-term TSLA calls to finance the entirety of all above trades, and leaving enough for walk-around cash or physical gold buys depending on pricing, as since the cloud-ATM opportunity is come-hither inviting w/ TSLA reaching new highs for no particularly good reasons
I could have kept it simple and add more beautiful coins in cute canisters sporting own branded but superfluous polishing cloth. Thinking of such as the Vitamin D3 of macro, but need to do more with still-healthy TSLA in order to facilitate more cost-less accumulation. I wish Elon well.
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