<<There was a short editorial in the Motley Fool that gave a slight hint that AMAT might be "sniffing around" IPEC at these levels. Do you think that is a possibility, and if so, would a such a partnership be detrimental to SFAM, or possibly even positive to SFAM? Also, is SFAM's exposure to Asia's problems really that much less than IPEC's, as TEColeman states? Thanks....>>
There is very little chance that AMATwill buy IPEC or SFAM, in my opinion. AMAT has no capacity issues with their CMP product, the Mirra, and it is a competitive offering. There is no reason for them to purchase a CMP manufacturer. SFAM is more compelling than IPEC because SFAM also makes the Capella and supports a few non-device markets that AMAT might find attractive, but still, I think that AMAT will not be a buyer of either company. Novellus remains the most likely buyer, though there could be other candidates as well.
Regarding Asia, Speedfam stood to gain much more than any other CMP maker from Asian growth, which has now evaporated. With the emasculating of Samsung and its inability to find funding, Speedfam is weakened relative to its position with a strong Asia. IPEC is hurt a bit by Asia, but the Asian crisis is mostly just a convenient excuse for poor performance used by a company that frequently resorts to such tactics.
With the semiconductor stocks turning around recently, the SOXX index may be heading back up to the 400 level over the next six months. This is welcome news for those of us who have held through the whole downturn. For those trying to time a re-entry, you might consider buying on some short-term weakness today. (Tech stocks are down a bit in profit taking in Europe this morning.) Do your own research, and draw your own conclusions.
Mr. Sam |
