Roger, unlike Dan, I appreciate Garry's occasional posting on SI (though I think it tends to make the ELNK thread too much of a fan club sometimes) and I doubt it takes much of his time as he is simply responding to specific questions (and must give canned answers to many for legal reasons).
My reasons for considering ELNK as a short include overvaluation, technological risks, and their inability to even turn positive cash flow, much less profits, from a larger base of the same customer type as MindSpring (I wouldn't buy MSPG here either, except possibly as a hedge to ELNK). Much of the reason that both of these ISPs have advanced to such lofty valuations is speculation that some Telco or CLEC might want to own them. At these values, I don't see that (for MSPG, I'd give ITC Holdings another 1-2 years before they sell it or combine it with ITCD and sell both, but that's just a guess).
Ten points lower and MSPG is a buy and ELNK is a maybe, assuming they can get into the ADSL club or I'm convinced its otherwise a non-issue.
BTW, who did Garry work for in Atlanta?
Lastly, any thoughts on GTW as a long?
Bob |
