Here's some of what they said..
Only a few companies will benefit from the transition to 64 megabit
16 megabit memory production will of course wind down as the industry begins to
transition to 64 megabit. That process, though, is well underway at only a few
companies. The hurdles in moving to 64 megabit are substantial, and at this
early stage of the game the gap between leaders and laggards is large.
Companies well ahead in the race to shrink 64 megabit dies and reduce
production costs include NEC (NIPNF/Y, Y1,440/$57 1/2, C-1-1-7), Toshiba
(TOSBF, C-3-3-7, Y591), Mitsubishi Electric (MIELF/Y, Y415/$34, C-4-3-7) and
Samsung (SMSEF, W80,500, C-2-1-7). The other Japanese and Korean makers are
lagging behind, as are Micron Technology (MU, $34 5/8, C-3-3-9) and Texas
Instruments (TXN, $55 3/4, B-3-1-7). We estimate that Micron may be between 9
months and 12 months behind industry leaders in die size and cost reduction,
with 64 megabit dies of 150mm square as compared to under 100 mm square for
industry leaders. Companies able to produce 64 megabit memories in small die
sizes and high yields may be able to benefit even if the broader semiconductor
environment is unfavorable - we note that our Japanese team expects 64 megabit
memories to begin contributing meaningfully to profits in the second half of
1998. |
