| | | Report: Sturgis Motorcycle Rally May Have Caused Over 250,000 Coronavirus Cases The report estimated that the rally generated about $12.2 billion in public health costs, which is based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case.
By Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder,
Over 400,000 motorcycle enthusiasts gathered for the annual rally from Aug. 7-16, and it was reported that social distancing and mask wearing at some of the events was not observed.
The rally was officially linked to hundreds of coronavirus cases across more than 10 states and at least one death. But the study that relied on cell phone data to track movements estimates that over 250,000 reported coronavirus cases from August 2 to September 2 are due to the rally – nearly 20% of the national cases during that time period, according to Andrew Friedson, one of the authors of the report.
Counties with the highest numbers of rally attendees had roughly a 7-12% increase in cases when compared to counties without rally goers, according to the report from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, an independent economic research group.
The report found that the rally had many of the factors to make a superspreading event: it was prolonged, individuals were packed closely together, it involved a large out-of-town population and there was a low compliance rate with recommended mitigation measures. A couple factors that did work in the event's favor, however, included that the venue was outdoors and that South Dakota has a low population density.
Cases in the rally's home county of Meade increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 people roughly a month after the rally started, the report found.
It also found that the rally generated about $12.2 billion in public health costs, which is based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case. This amount would have been enough to pay each rally goer over $26,000 not to attend, the report said.
"While we note that this estimate captures the full costs of infections due to the Sturgis rally – and is an overestimate of the externality cost because this number includes COVID-19 infections to individuals who attended the rally (and may have internalized private health risks) – we nonetheless conclude that local and nationwide contagion from this event was substantial," the report said. However, the researchers found that states appeared to reduce the spread of the virus from the rally through strict mitigation policies. This suggests that "stricter mitigation policies in other locations may contribute to limiting externality exposure due to the behavior of non-compliant events and those who travel to them," the report said. |
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