Here's my notes from the CC:
-- 26 Supply boats - Q4 day rate was $8,032 (+400 from Q3). 2 boats added in Q4.
-- 39 Crew boats $2294 per day (+170)
-- both the above at 93% utilization, which is full utilization
-- activity is so strong dayrates could continue up more, but as a slow rate.
-- see spot rates now of $8400-$8700 and expect to have day rates continue up this half to those levels.
-- towing $7.4 MM revenue vs $4.5 in Q3
Gulf of Mexico:
-- do not forsee weakening of demand in 1998 or 1999. talked of lease sales and expiring leases to drill and shortage or rigs...
-- concerning the supply boat demand/supply:
....... majority of new boat construction already under contract
........believe they will be absorbed by new mkt demand:
................see 20 more drilling rigs in next 18 months
................ plus prod platforms (no detail given)
................ plus construction sector (runing pipes, etc.)
.......16 boats added to fleet in last 16 months
.......could aabsorb 10-12 in current market due to imbalance
........30-35 vessels are marginal/sub std and and should be retired (they get $5000-6000 /day now)
........room for 30 new builds before new rigs & platforms considered
......plus 40-50 boats needed for new rigs.
......70 vessels are under contract now, 30 in 98, 30 in 99 and 10 in 2000.
....of those HMAR has 5 in 98 and 1 in 99.
...1/2 of new build with privately held Schwest (?) and all but 2 of his boats are under contract now.
....intl (Norway) builds of 30 vessels for North Sea -- majority already under contract, just as GOM builds.
... timing of builds -- see delays in the shipyards whih will mitigate TDW percieved risk
....total GOM fleet 330.
-- "demand is in reasonably good balance with supply coming on line over next few years"
World Wide:
-- quite healthy, nigeria, india, west africa....
-- EBITDA 45% non-US + 35% domestic energy services.
-- can optimize the util of flet within world wide markets if things get out of hand in GOM.
Overall
-- very confident of market and their position in the market
-- turmoil of last week is significantly overdone
-- Filed for stock sale at $31, comfortable at that price, not sure when the sale will occur, obviously.
---TDW's concerns related to timing and a short term mismatch perhaps. Hvide sees it mitigated by delays in boat delivery, retirements of boats, and even adjustments to move boats out of GOM.
My Impression:
Could not look better! |
