Exactly what data is this...please feel free to analyze it statistically. I read it to say GIGO. Garbage in=Garbage out. FAKE polls in=FAKE numbers out.
All mainstream national polls conducted and published in the United States are used to calculate the national polling average, which can be found at the very top of this interactive. These polls are weighted according to three factors:
Date: New polls are awarded more weight than older polls, and the rate of decay increases as the election approaches.Sample size: Polls with larger sample sizes are weighted more heavily than those with smaller sample sizes. The weighting is determined by what would be the margin of error of the sample of decided voters, assuming a probabilistic sample.Pollster rating: The reliability of the pollster is determined by FiveThirtyEight.com's Pollster Ratings.Polls are also adjusted by removing undecided voters from reported polling results (when not already done by the pollster) and distributing them according to the voting intentions of decided voters in the survey. When pollsters report different results based on voter registration and/or likelihood to vote, “likely voter” results are prioritized, followed by “registered voters” and, lastly, “all adults”.
All mainstream national polls conducted and published in the United States are used to calculate the national polling average, which can be found at the very top of this interactive. These polls are weighted according to three factors:
Date: New polls are awarded more weight than older polls, and the rate of decay increases as the election approaches.Sample size: Polls with larger sample sizes are weighted more heavily than those with smaller sample sizes. The weighting is determined by what would be the margin of error of the sample of decided voters, assuming a probabilistic sample.Pollster rating: The reliability of the pollster is determined by FiveThirtyEight.com's Pollster Ratings.Polls are also adjusted by removing undecided voters from reported polling results (when not already done by the pollster) and distributing them according to the voting intentions of decided voters in the survey. When pollsters report different results based on voter registration and/or likelihood to vote, “likely voter” results are prioritized, followed by “registered voters” and, lastly, “all adults”. |
